Exclusive: Poll before 80th anniversary of VE Day finds tensions with Russia seen as most probable cause

As Europe prepares to mark the 80th anniversary of VE Day, the YouGov polling also showed large majorities felt that events during and before the second world war were relevant today and must continue to be taught to younger generations.

Between 41% and 55% of respondents in the five European countries polled: Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, said they thought another world war was very or fairly likely within the next five to 10 years, a view shared by 45% of Americans.

Majorities of 68% to 76% said they expected any new conflict would involve nuclear weapons, and between 57% and 73% also said a third world war would lead to greater loss of life than in 1939-1945. Many (25% to 44%) believed it would kill most people in the world.

  • realitista@lemm.eeEnglish
    2·
    9 hours ago

    Those are precisely the kind of conflicts I’m talking about.

    As for USA vs China, it all hinges on what happens in Taiwan. If the USA feels it can onshore all chip fab it probably will let Taiwan get overrun. But I don’t think that likely in the term in which this conflict is likely to happen, so I think the US will be pretty directly involved in this one.

    • barsoap@lemm.eeEnglish
      4·
      8 hours ago

      The Chinese are making a lot of noise about Taiwan and that’s why Taiwan is the last place you should be looking at. Look at Outer Manchuria, instead, especially in the face of Russian weakness and looming chaos.

    • hansolo@lemm.eeEnglish
      1·
      8 hours ago

      Gotcha, sorry I thought you meant in a sort of a more large-scale coordinated way with the authoritarians.

      The easiest way for China to take Taiwan back is to wait for something complicated to occupy the military and WH, even only at the very top leadership level. A protracted and undeniable scandal, another major shake-up while the boss is out of town, or the end result of all this internal military use for law enforcement that seems to want to end posse comitatus within I think 80-ish days at this point, are all options. Spin up the machine to catch it’s own tail and the response elsewhere will be too little and too late because of the more hierarchical nature of decison-making now. Steve Bannon’s own “flood the zone with shit” tactic, inspired by Tsun Tzu.

      Chip fab won’t matter because nothing else logical has mattered so far. Why jump straight to a trade war with all your largest trading partners without even preparing for it? Foolishness and ego. Same same here as well.

      • taladar@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
        1·
        5 hours ago

        Honestly, I fully expect China to just wait out Taiwan right now because the US is busy hurting itself. Who wants to distract their enemy when they are constantly making huge mistakes?