For Canadians, there’s nothing new about a province contemplating secession. Two referendums on Quebec’s potential independence – in 1980 and 1995 – brought the country uncomfortably close to the precipice. Today, it’s not Quebec but the oil-rich western province of Alberta that is chafing under the constraints of Canadian confederation. US president Donald Trump’s tariffs and comments about turning Canada into the 51st state have set in motion a chain of political events that will probably result in a referendum on Albertan independence sometime in 2026.

Conservative political leaders in Alberta have traditionally stoked resentment of the federal government in Ottawa without crossing the line to advocate separation. The grievances are largely economic and in recent years have focused on environmental policies. The Conservative-led Alberta provincial government has portrayed these policies as hostile to the oil and gas industry, and consequently an attack on the province’s affluence and identity.

The current Alberta premier, Danielle Smith, has opened the door to a referendum by lowering the threshold for a citizen initiative to hold a referendum to a mere 10% of the votes cast in the most recent election. In practice this means that gathering just 177,000 signatures would be enough to put the measure before voters next year. Although Smith claims to want a united Canada, her actions have empowered separatists, who have busily begun collecting names of those willing to sign the petition.