…
Ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague this month, where members are expected to agree to raise defense spending targets to 5% of GDP, the alliance is worried that Russia is using its policy of transparency for propaganda and military planning.
…
The Kremlin is deliberately betting on turning even the smallest incidents into scandals and points of conflict, a strategy demonstrated by recent disinformation campaigns targeting Moscow’s opponents.
French President Emmanuel Macron found himself at the center of these efforts, first through unflattering rumors about his wife Brigitte and later with a viral video in which she allegedly slapped him before they disembarked a plane.
In one famous example, Russian state television channels, pro-Kremlin online media and Telegram news channels spread the false claim that a bag of cocaine was lying on the table in front of Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on their train to Kyiv.
In reality, it was a napkin.
…
I don’t buy it.
The examples given are not based on Ukraine Aid or Defense planning, but on press videos and photos that aren’t affected by the suggested measures. And by now it is also fairly easy to create something plausible enough for propaganda purposes with generative AI and classic editing tools.
I would be surprised if Russian intelligence would not have access to the information on military spending anyways. Like it or not, Russia is fairly competent in cyber warfare and has plenty of spy satellites. At last when the tanks, missiles or the like are loaded onto a train, the satellites will pick them up.
Heavy equipment is pretty hard to conceal during transport, there is still a lot of effort involved in evaluating and interpreting satellite images, though. Potentially those efforts can be, at least partially, be thwarted by moving around dummy equipment, or driving around in circles, with repeated unloading and loading in areas invisible to the surveillance (e.g. under a roof) in order to sow confusion about the real numbers. Anything that’s small enough to be loaded into a container, or can be easily broken up into small enough parts, is quite easy to hide from direct observation. Nobody looking from the outside can tell whether a shipping container contains a bunch of Taurus Cruise Missiles, or just a lot of rubber ducks.
Of course, access to relevant paperwork will reveal pretty much anything you can think of. But that’s what counter espionage is for, most countries operate entire government agencies with that task.
I genuinely don’t understand how this hasn’t been clear as day for everyone from the start. We’ve seen Putin (I still refuse to say Russia because it’s not Russia’s war, it’s Putin’s specifically) do this many, many times before! He’s shown us his methods, he’s broadcast his intentions over and over again (especially when trying to disguise them, I’d say, because his lies are always absurd and stupid), we all know why he’s doing what he’s doing. Why are we dancing around the subject, trying to give the benefit of the doubt to the wolf who’s lounging belly-up in the middle of our empty and bloodied sheep pen?
I say this is just so the public doesn’t know 5hen the U.S. with a strangle hold on NATO can just reduce it with no oversight.