A “collapse” of key Atlantic ocean currents would cause winter temperatures to plunge across northern Europe, overriding the warming driven by human activity.
In short term, the trends are opposite to Europe or its coastal Atlantic having colder winters, and this opposite trend has many reasons to continue with more warming.
Tropical Atlantic is getting warmer. Even if current flow northward slows down, the amount of heat flowing could stay about the same.
Air termperatures are warming entire oceans, but especially North Atlantic from North American westerlies.
Arctic ocean is not melting at an accelerated rate. It is not freezing as much in winter. This is feedback from hotter oceans in summer, and there is in fact an extreme record low Arctic sea ice volume now and this winter. https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
That feedback pattern comes from early summer sea ice extent loss. Hot open Arctic ocean is more the result of baking in the sun for 20+ hours per day then AMOC. Ice regrowth is slowed. Number of days ice free is as important as air temperature
Europe’s winter weather depends on coastal Atlantic sea temperature. That can keep getting warmer despite slower AMOC from above factors.
In short term, the trends are opposite to Europe or its coastal Atlantic having colder winters, and this opposite trend has many reasons to continue with more warming.
Tropical Atlantic is getting warmer. Even if current flow northward slows down, the amount of heat flowing could stay about the same.
Air termperatures are warming entire oceans, but especially North Atlantic from North American westerlies.
Arctic ocean is not melting at an accelerated rate. It is not freezing as much in winter. This is feedback from hotter oceans in summer, and there is in fact an extreme record low Arctic sea ice volume now and this winter. https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
That feedback pattern comes from early summer sea ice extent loss. Hot open Arctic ocean is more the result of baking in the sun for 20+ hours per day then AMOC. Ice regrowth is slowed. Number of days ice free is as important as air temperature
Europe’s winter weather depends on coastal Atlantic sea temperature. That can keep getting warmer despite slower AMOC from above factors.