| Party | Seats | Change | Percentage | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 190 | +37 | 44.2% | 88.1% | 11.6% |
| Conservative | 120 | -1 | 38.5% | 0.2% | 4.8% |
| Bloc | 26 | -7 | 6.2% | N/A | N/A |
| New Democrat | 6 | -19 | 6.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Green | 1 | -1 | 1.5% | N/A | N/A |
| People’s | 0 | N/A | 2.5% | N/A | N/A |
Source: https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/dashboard/canada#voter-intention
Polls tend to revert to the mean. This isn’t surprising, a contraction for the Liberals was always inevitable at some point. With the lead they’ve built up their odds look good to excellent, but it’s definitely important to understand that by election day it’s going to be much more up in the air than it is now.
As always, nothing matters if people don’t get out and vote.
This 100%. Polls aren’t elections. Vote when it matters!